Good Luck, America

I'm starting the draft for this post at 1:30 AM on election night, and things are looking unbelievably bleak. I think it's time for some serious introspection. Uncomfortable introspection.

This year's election cycle felt oddly reminiscent of 2016. From the overconfidence going into election night, to the faith that "the blue wall" would salvage the race, to... Hell, even the jokes came back, with the "Happy Birthday Madam President" post making a reprisal. We're 0 for 2 on those, guys.

Kamala lost. Both the electoral and the popular vote. Not even the votes for Jill Stein would have made a difference. This was a historically under-performing campaign. Even beyond the presidency, there's been an overwhelming and undeniable rightward shift across the entire country. And it scares me half to death.

Well, what happened?

Democratic consultants and pundits will be quick to use insignificant statistics as scapegoats, likely find a minority demographic to blame within the next few days, and call for a more conservative shift within the party. They're wrong. Always wrong. And if there's anything they've shown over the past few elections, it's that they have little-to-no understanding of the term "accountability."

But I think there's a couple reasons why she lost.

I don't think it's racism or sexism to blame, at least entirely. For both parties this year, nationwide, there is projected to be a decrease in voter turnout compared to 2020. If people really detested the idea of a black woman in power, I would have expected the opposing vote to have increased over last year's. Instead, these results signal to me a frustration in both candidates and a frightening nationwide increase in apathy, likely sparked by COVID-era "return to normalcy" desires.

And it's not third party voters' fault either. Yes, Jill Stein is a Zionist grifter who bait-and-switched many leftists into throwing their votes away this year, and she deserves the absolute worst. But even if we assume 100% of those votes would have translated to votes for Kamala– which wouldn't have happened, by the way– Republicans would have still won in every state they did.

If you look at Project FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of Biden's approval rating in comparison to past presidents at this point of their presidency, it's historically low. Lower than Clinton 1998, Dubya 2004, Obama 2012, and even Trump 2020. No matter what you think of him, Biden is a widely unpopular president and I don't think he would have fared any better. He not only took away lots of runway from the Harris campaign, but generated a huge headwind as well. So part of this buck stops with him.

Additionally, I don't think that Harris did enough to distance herself from that campaign. I think most people believed that she was just a stand-in for Biden and that most or all of the policy would be the same. And on most of the major issues this year– namely the economy and immigration– people wanted change.

The most damning stat that I've seen so far comes from comparing CNN exit polls from 2020 and 2024, which recorded party identification and the candidate each person voted for. In 2020, 94% of republicans voted Trump. In 2024... That number remained exactly the same, despite Harris's increase in bipartisan messaging. And republican votes for democratic candidates even went down a point this year.

Yes, exit polls are unreliable, et cetera, et cetera. But if this correlation does extrapolate to the broad electorate, then it can only mean one thing: the days of liberal bipartisanship are no more. It means the strategy of dropping blue-collar workers in exchange for suburban republicans just doesn't work. It failed in 2016. It failed again this year. Pearl clutching just isn't effective anymore. You need turnout to win now, and that's only driven by desperation or populism.

At the bare minimum, one thing is clear: Over the past 8 years, the Republican party has successfully and totally pivoted to a new extremism-driven model to match the desires of the electorate Trump spawned. They're collaborating with popular online influencers like Joe Rogan, Jake Paul, and Adin Ross to foster a new generation of bigots before they can even vote. They use misinformation often to totally detach their followers from reality, then get them to mindlessly do or repeat whatever the party wants. And it works. Wonderfully.

I'm seeing many calls for the Democratic party to sponsor a new independent media arm to rival the Republicans' but I think these fail to consider that the left-leaning indie media market already exists and is very popular. Hasan Piker's live election night coverage garnered an astonishing peak of over 300k concurrent viewers. Tapping into that base would do wonders for youth outreach, but also means confronting the unfortunate reality that democratic messaging is wildly out of touch with what people want to hear. After all, this is the same party that kicked influencers out of their national convention for talking about the uncommitted movement. Big disconnect.

And so the big question remains: Are the democrats brave enough to do any pivoting of their own?

Part of me keeps looking back at the proverbial shelf of the 2020 democratic primary, looking at Bernie's lightning in a bottle gathering dust, and reminiscing on how he appealed to the exact demographics that betrayed us this year. Part of me still thinks that a strong, leftward shift that is equal and opposite to Trump's could set us back on the right path. That bottle's staring back at me like it's the fucking green goblin mask. I have to believe that a better world is possible. I have to believe that this is the way. But the pragmatist in me knows I likely won't ever see a race like that again.

So what do you do in a country where voting failed and over half of the people want you and your compatriots dead? You organize.

Never ever, ever, ever stop organizing. Even when democrats are in power. Keep on organizing. Support your local unions, never cross picket lines, donate to local charities, support mutual aid networks, volunteer at your shelters, never abandon empathy, and most importantly: be loud, proud, and make those fascists scared. We outnumber them. They need to remember that.

It goes without saying that things are about to get worse. Way, way worse. We need to stick together. Remember: If you know any trans people, no you don't. If you know any immigrants, no you don't. If you know any marginalized people that are likely to be targeted by this new administration, no you don't.

We have to survive. Together. From the suburban resist libs, to the rural socialists, to the metropolitan anarchists. From white, to black, and everywhere in-between. Gay, straight, non-binary, trans. All of us. We must.

And get ready to lock the fuck in for the next democratic primary, baby. We've got work to do.